Professor Rob Ford analyses the Rochdale by-election
FordÇà¹ÏÊÓƵ™s analysis suggests that George GallowayÇà¹ÏÊÓƵ™s election victory was a one-off and that he may lose the seat in the general election.
In a blog for UK in a Changing Europe, analyses the circumstances behind GallowayÇà¹ÏÊÓƵ™s surprising victory in the . Ford argues that the large swing to Galloway must be understood against the unique circumstances of the by-election, such that LabourÇà¹ÏÊÓƵ™s disavowal of their own candidate.
Çà¹ÏÊÓƵ˜Rochdale was almost like a natural experiment to see how low the Labour vote would go if voters are given no information, are not mobilised, and are actively discouraged from supporting the partyÇà¹ÏÊÓƵ™s candidate. It is difficult to imagine more favourable circumstances for outsiders and insurgents.Çà¹ÏÊÓƵ™
Nonetheless, Ford maintains that the Rochdale results may still worry Labour in a volatile electoral landscape where they can no longer rely on old loyalties.
Professor Rob Ford is co-author of , published by Palgrave Macmillan.